Escalfamiento global

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O escalfamiento global ye o proceso d'aumento gradual d'a temperatura d'a planeta Tierra por, entre atras causas, a intensificación d'o efecto hibernadero.^[1] O Grupo Intergubernamental sobre o Cambio climatico (IPCC) diz que gran parti de l'aumento d'a temperatura global dende a midat d'o sieglo XX se debe a l'aumento de concentracions antropochenicas de gas hibernadero.^[2] Probablement fenomenos naturals como a variación solar y os vulcans provocoron una mica d'escalfamiento global dende a epoca preindustrial dica 1950 y un chicot refriamiento dende 1950 entabant.^[3]^[4] Istas conclusions basicas han estato aprebatas por, como minimo, 30 sociedaz y academias cientificas,^[5] incluyindo totas as academias nacionals de ciencia d'os países mas industrializatos.^[6]^[7]^[8] Mientres que bels cientificos individuals han amostrato desalcuerdo con ista hipotesi,^[9] a gran mayoría de cientificos que treballan en o cambio climatico son d'alcuerdo con as conclusions prencipals d'o IPCC.^[10]^[11]

Procheccions de modelos climaticos indican que as temperaturas d'a superficie puyarán d'1,1 a 6,6 °C mientres o sieglo XXI.^[2] O mas incierto en ista estimación ye l'aumento u no d'emisions de gas hibernadero y l'uso de modelos con una sensibilidat climatica diferent. Una atra cosa incierta ye como o escalfamiento y altros cambios relacionatos variaran en cada rechión. A mayoría d'os estudios se centran en o periodo dimpués d'o 2100, y se creye que o escalfamiento continará bels mil anyos si os livels de gas hibernadero s'estabilizan. Isto se debe a la gran capacidat de calor d'os oceanos.^[2]

L'aumento d'a temperatura global prevocará a puyata d'o livel d'as mars y cambeará o numero de precipitacions, incluindo una expansión d'as rechions subtropicals deserticas.^[12] Atros efectos incluyen l'aumento en a intensidat d'o clima extremo, cambios en as cullitas, modificacions d'as rotas comercials, o retacule d'as cheleras y a extinción d'especies.

A mayoría d'os gubiernos han sinyato y ratificato lo Protocolo de Kyoto pa reducir as emisions de gas hibernadero.

Controversia

La controversia d'o calentamiento global se refiere a una variedat de disputas, sobretodo en os meyos de comunicación de masas mas que en estudios y literatura cientifica. Las cuestions en disputa incluyen las causas de l'incremento d'a meya global d'a temperatura, especialment dende meyaus d'o sieglo XX y si esta tendencia de calentamiento no tiene precedentes, si ye dentro d'as variacions climaticas normals u si la humanidat ha contribuyiu significativament a ella. Atras disputas se refieren a las estimacions d'a variabilidad climatica, las prediccions d'o calentamiento adicional y cuáls estarán las suyas consecuencias. Estas posturas contrarias han derivau en un movimiento social conoixiu como negacionismo d'o cambio climatico, que a vegadas son tamién propaganda feita per sectors socioeconomicos que podrian estar perchudicaus per l'aplicación de medidas contra lo cambio climatico.

Referencias

↑ (ca) Enciclopèdia Catalana
↑ ^2,0 ^2,1 ^2,2 Summary for PolicymakerFis. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
↑ Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Hegerl, Gabriele C. et al. "Recent estimates (Figure 9.9) indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the seconds half of the twentieth century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings".
↑ Ammann, Caspar. et al., Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from ransient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. "However, because of a lack of interactive ozone, the model cannot fully simulate features discussed in (44)." "While the NH temperatures of the high-scaled experiment are often colder than the lower bound from proxy data, the modeled decadal-scale NH surface temperature for the medium-scaled case falls within the uncertainty range of the available temperature reconstructions. The medium-scaled simulation also broadly reproduces the main features seen in the proxy records." "Without anthropogenic forcing, the 20th century warming is small. The simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism"
↑ En 2001 se sinyó por as academias cientificas d'Australia, Belchica, Brasil, Canadá, o Caribe, China, Francia, Alemanya, India, Indonesia, Irlanda, Italia, Malaisia, Nueva Zelanda, Suecia y o Reino Uniu. En 2005 tamién se i adhibioron Chapón, Rusia y os Estaus Unius. En 2007 se i adhibioron Mexico y Sudafrica.
↑ The Science Of Climate Change, Royal Society
↑ Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change, Royal Society.
↑ Joint science academies' statement on growth and responsibility: sustainability, energy efficiency and climate protection, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
↑ Don't fight, adapt. National Post
↑ A guide to facts and fictions about climate change. Royal Society. "However, the overwhelming majority of scientists who work on climate change agree on the main points"
↑ Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Science Magacine.
↑ Lu, Jian; Gabriel A. Vecchi; Thomas Reichler: Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters.

Vinclos externos

Se veigan as imáchens de Commons sobre o escalfamiento global.

Datos: Q7942
Multimedia: Global warming / Q7942

[1] (ca) Enciclopèdia Catalana

[grida7-2] 2,0 ^2,1 ^2,2 Summary for PolicymakerFis. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

[3] Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Hegerl, Gabriele C. et al. "Recent estimates (Figure 9.9) indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the seconds half of the twentieth century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings".

[4] Ammann, Caspar. et al., Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from ransient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. "However, because of a lack of interactive ozone, the model cannot fully simulate features discussed in (44)." "While the NH temperatures of the high-scaled experiment are often colder than the lower bound from proxy data, the modeled decadal-scale NH surface temperature for the medium-scaled case falls within the uncertainty range of the available temperature reconstructions. The medium-scaled simulation also broadly reproduces the main features seen in the proxy records." "Without anthropogenic forcing, the 20th century warming is small. The simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism"

[5] En 2001 se sinyó por as academias cientificas d'Australia, Belchica, Brasil, Canadá, o Caribe, China, Francia, Alemanya, India, Indonesia, Irlanda, Italia, Malaisia, Nueva Zelanda, Suecia y o Reino Uniu. En 2005 tamién se i adhibioron Chapón, Rusia y os Estaus Unius. En 2007 se i adhibioron Mexico y Sudafrica.

[6] The Science Of Climate Change, Royal Society

[7] Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change, Royal Society.

[8] Joint science academies' statement on growth and responsibility: sustainability, energy efficiency and climate protection, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

[9] Don't fight, adapt. National Post

[10] A guide to facts and fictions about climate change. Royal Society. "However, the overwhelming majority of scientists who work on climate change agree on the main points"

[11] Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Science Magacine.

[12] Lu, Jian; Gabriel A. Vecchi; Thomas Reichler: Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters.

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